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Macroeconomic Research

A more in-depth analysis focused on the most relevant topics on the Brazilian economy. Usually focuses on a specific theme, be it economic activity, inflation, monetary or fiscal policies, exchange rate and external accounts. Although the publication does not follow a regular calendar, there tends to be one or more editions per month.

Last publication

Exchange Rate
"Lethal Weapon": How Far Can the BCB Go with Swaps?
Published in 06/15/2018
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Previous publications

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
Rely on Fundamentals and Carry On
Published in 06/08/2018
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Economic Scenario
Truck Strike: A Preliminary Assessment
Published in 05/29/2018
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Monetary Policy
Copom Capitulates to Changing Balance of Risks
Published in 05/16/2018
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Monetary Policy
The Good Convergence
Published in 05/09/2018
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Protectionism and Economic Activity
Infinite (Trade) War: Does It Matter for Brazil? 
Published in 05/02/2018
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Exchange Rate
Stickernomics - What Do the Prices of Soccer Stickers Around the World Tell Us About Exchange Rates?
Published in 04/24/2018
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Monetary Policy
Lower for Longer: We Expect 2019 Year-End Selic at 7.5%
Published in 04/12/2018
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Exchange Rate

Falling Interest Rate Differentials Leading to BRL Weakness 
Published in 03/28/2018
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Credit Report
NPLs Improving More Than Meets the Eye
Published in 03/26/2018
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Monetary Policy
TJLP: Less Discretion, More Volatility?
Published in 03/19/2018
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Inflation
Food (Inflation) for Thought (2): Forecasts
Published in 03/09/2018
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Inflation
Food (Inflation) for Thought: Relative Prices
Published in 03/07/2018
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Fiscal Policy
One-Off Is Not Enough
Published in 02/20/2018
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Inflation and Monetary Policy

Even Better than the Real Thing
Published in 02/15/2018
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Social Security Reform
Same Proposal. Different Probability?
Published in 02/08/2018
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Exchange Rate

Why Has the BRL Weakened in 2017?
Published in 01/08/2018
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Economic Activity
The Unstoppable Force of Consumption
Published in 01/03/2018
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Inflation/Utilities
It's Raining Cats and Dogs; Impact of Hydrology on Tariffs and Inflation
Published in 11/29/2017
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Social Security Reform
Let’s Try Again: The Positive and the Negative in the Latest Attempt to Pass Social Security Reform
Published in 11/28/2017
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Inflation
Core Inflation Expected to Remain Comfortably Below 4% in 2018 and 2019
Published in 11/16/2017
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Monetary Policy and Fixed Income
Is the BRL Yield Curve Too Steep?
Published in 11/13/2017
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Market Assessment
It’s Not About Social Security Reform
Published in 11/09/2017
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Economic Activity
In Search of Lost Growth: What Is the Extent of Spare Capacity in Brazil’s Economy?
Published in 10/20/2017
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Macro and Markets
IMF/World Bank Meetings Takeaways: Allegro Ma Non Troppo
Published in 10/16/2017
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Monetary Policy and GDP Growth
Coming - The Lowest Interest Rates Ever?
Published in 10/10/2017
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Reform Agenda
Social Security Reform: Well Beyond the (Necessary) Fiscal Impact
Published in 09/13/2017
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Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy and the Last Crusade
Published in 08/30/2017
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Economic Scenario
Unusually Low Risk Aversion Triggers a More Bullish Scenario in the Short Term
Published in 08/17/2017
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Fiscal Policy
2017 – 2020 Long Range Fiscal Target
Published in 08/16/2017
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Fiscal Policy
2019: Time to Bite the Bullet II
Publicado em 17/07/2017
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Fiscal Policy
2019: Time to Bite the Bullet
Published in 06/28/2017
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Credit Market
Will Rising Uncertainty Stop the Credit Recovery?
Published in 06/22/17
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Economic Activity
Understated Consumption Drivers
Published in 06/12/17
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Economic Scenario
Stayin' Alive
Published in 05/22/17
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Economic Activity
The Recession Is Over: The Reasons Why
Published in 04/27/2017
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Monetary Policy
"De-Jaboticabizing" Brazil, Part I: End of TJLP is a First Step Toward More Rational Credit Market
Published in 04/24/2017
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Structural Reforms
Report on the Social Security Reform Proposal: A Risky Strategy
Published in 04/20/2017
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Inflation and Monetary Policy
The Waves
Published in 04/10/2017
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Exchange Rate
Reality Check: Revised but (Still) Out-of-Consensus BRL Forecast
Published in 03/22/2017
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Exchange Rate
Monetary Easing: The BRL Is the Limit
Published in 03/20/2017
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Credit Market
Will Deleveraging Limit Credit Growth?
Published in 02/03/2017
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Economic Activity
Can FGTS Funds Boost the Economy in 2017?
Published in 01/31/2017
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Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity
Crowding-In or Crowding-Out? That Is the Question
Published in 01/18/2017
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Monetary Policy
Copom January 2017: "Modus Operandi" vs. "Panic Button"
Published in 01/09/2017
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Monetary Policy
Why So Tight? Let’s Put Speed on that Pace
Published in 12/09/2016
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Structural Reforms
Social Security Reform: First Thoughts
Published in 12/07/2016
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Economic Activity
Maintaining the Route but Adjusting the Speed: A Gradual Economic Recovery
Published in 12/02/2016
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Inflation
Inflation Convergence: Not in 2017

Published in 11/16/2016
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Economic Scenario
President-elect Trump: What Now for Brazil?
Published in 11/09/2016
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Monetary Policy
On the Way Back to Single-Digit Rates
Published in 10/19/2016
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Fiscal Policy 
Spending Cap - The New Fiscal Regime

Published in 10/07/2016
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Politics
Municipal Elections: When the Ballots Speak
Published in 10/04/2016
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Politics
Closed for Renovation: The Challenging Reform Agenda

Published in 10/03/2016
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Economic Activity
Optimistic about GDP, Not So Much about Consumption

Published in 09/29/2016
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Exchange Rate
Once Again, the External Factor

Published in 09/22/2016
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Economic Activity
Climbing Out of the Hole: The End of the Recessionary Cycle
Published in 09/13/2016
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Exchange Rate
BRL - A High-Beta Currency
Published in 08/30/2016
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Monetary Policy
To Hit The Target
Published in 08/26/2016
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Economic Activity
It’s Happening: The Ongoing Investment-Led Recovery
Published in 08/05/2016
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Credit Market
What Can Credit Do for Brazilian Growth?

Published in 07/18/2016
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Fiscal Policy
Fiscal X-Ray
Published in 07/14/2016
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Economic Activity
Ladder or Trapdoor? The Major Role of Investments
Published in 06/28/2016
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Monetary Policy
TJLP: Rules and Discretion

Published in 06/27/2016
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Inflation
Food for Thought
Published in 06/22/2016
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Fiscal Policy
Match Point
Published in 06/14/2016
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Fiscal Policy
The New (No) Fiscal Target
Published in 05/26/2016
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Exchange Rate
The External Factor

Published in 05/25/2016
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Economic Scenario
Brazil Under a New Administration

Published in 05/13/2016
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Fiscal Policy
The Clash of Titans — Desirable versus Feasible

Published in 05/12/2016
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Economic Activity
Deterioration in the Labor Market: The Worst Consequence of the Economic Downturn

Published in 04/08/2016
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Economics / Retail & Consumer Goods
Separating the wheat from the chaff: A Sector-detailed sensitivity analysis for 2016

Published in 02/16/2016
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Economic Activity
GDP in the Spotlight: Another Tough Year

Published in 01/27/2016
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Monetary Policy
An Incremental Monetary Tightening Cycle

Published in 01/15/2016
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Economic Scenario
Some Theses for 2016

Published in 01/08/2016
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